Ajaccio 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade François Coty plays host to Ajaccio versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 29% versus Estac Troyes 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 31% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.43 xG and Estac Troyes 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.601 / defence 1.260 | Estac Troyes attack 1.078 / defence 1.599. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.253. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.601 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.599 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Ajaccio games / 62 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 43%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Estac Troyes 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 30% | Estac Troyes 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Ajaccio 1.43 / Estac Troyes 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.601 / def 1.260 | Estac Troyes attack 1.078 / def 1.599 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Estac Troyes xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes part of?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 31% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ajaccio and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.60x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (1.08x) against Ajaccio's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
31%
3.25
27%
3.75
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
3.13
1.70
Estac Troyes xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.70 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajaccio come into this having played 62 games, going 27W 12D 23L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.92 PPG from 62 outings (13W 18D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajaccio's home form reads 15W 4D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (7W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.13 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Estac Troyes in 63%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 games (1.50 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 13W 18D 31L in their last 62 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Estac Troyes away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.63 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Estac Troyes 0-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 27%, Estac Troyes 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Ajaccio) and 67% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 70% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ajaccio's recent games and 67% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.43 xG and Estac Troyes 1.70 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.60 / defence 1.26 against Estac Troyes attack 1.08 / defence 1.60, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 31% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 31%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.