Ajaccio 1-3 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade François Coty to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajaccio 0.80 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 24% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 22% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.74 xG and Clermont Foot 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.559 / defence 1.034 | Clermont Foot attack 0.833 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.473. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.559 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Ajaccio games / 46 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 22% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 49%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 2.04. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Clermont Foot 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 22% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Ajaccio 0.74 / Clermont Foot 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.559 / def 1.034 | Clermont Foot attack 0.833 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Clermont Foot xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Ajaccio 1 - 3 Clermont Foot.
Where is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot part of?
Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 22% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajaccio and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.56) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
22%
4.64
30%
3.34
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.01
1.27
Clermont Foot xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 17.0 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.27 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 10D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.00 PPG from 46 outings (12W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajaccio's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 10D 24L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Clermont Foot away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.87 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Ajaccio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 26% BTTS, Clermont Foot 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Ajaccio and 44% for Clermont Foot.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 39% of games; Clermont Foot in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 35% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Ajaccio's recent games and 44% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Ajaccio 1-3 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.74 xG and Clermont Foot 1.27 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.56 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 22% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 49%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 22%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.