VPS 0-0 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs FF Jaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 7 as VPS welcome FF Jaro to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FF Jaro stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FF Jaro have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VPS 1.10 PPG, FF Jaro 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.21 xG and FF Jaro 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.978 / defence 0.950 | FF Jaro attack 0.751 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.623. FF Jaro's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 VPS games / 6 FF Jaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 37% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 35%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | FF Jaro 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 37% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG VPS 1.21 / FF Jaro 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.978 / def 0.950 | FF Jaro attack 0.751 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.623 • Poisson stance: VPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FF Jaro xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs FF Jaro kick off?
VPS vs FF Jaro kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs FF Jaro?
VPS 0 - 0 FF Jaro.
Where is VPS vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs FF Jaro part of?
VPS vs FF Jaro is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 37% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VPS and FF Jaro will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and FF Jaro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and FF Jaro in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. FF Jaro (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FF Jaro's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, FF Jaro's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.59
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
VPS xG
Total xG
2.37
1.16
FF Jaro xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are VPS and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for VPS and 1.16 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs FF Jaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for VPS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FF Jaro sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FF Jaro, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.50 PPG, FF Jaro on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FF Jaro are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro in 0%.
Defensively: FF Jaro in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Early Season
FF Jaro
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and FF Jaro in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while FF Jaro have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have VPS or FF Jaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FF Jaro in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and FF Jaro runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS's record when hosting FF Jaro specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
VPS
3
Draws
1
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and FF Jaro?
From 5 meetings on record, VPS have won 1, FF Jaro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and FF Jaro last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when FF Jaro 1-3 VPS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play FF Jaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 0% of FF Jaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs FF Jaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VPS's recent games and 0% of FF Jaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at VPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as VPS and FF Jaro drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.21 xG and FF Jaro 1.16 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VPS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FF Jaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against FF Jaro attack 0.75 / defence 0.78, drawn from 28/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 37% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 35%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 50%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.50 PPG, FF Jaro 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VPS managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FF Jaro managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.