Turku PS 0-1 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Turku PS at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Turku PS vs FF Jaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Group - 26 as Turku PS welcome FF Jaro to Veritas Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Turku PS stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Turku PS have posted 5W 2D 3L at Veritas Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Turku PS are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, FF Jaro have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, FF Jaro have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Turku PS 1.00 PPG, FF Jaro 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Turku PS's 30% rate and FF Jaro's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Turku PS, 0 for FF Jaro and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2026, ended 3–2 with Turku PS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Turku PS trading profile (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FF Jaro trading profile (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Turku PS 48% versus FF Jaro 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Turku PS 48% | FF Jaro 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Turku PS 1.98 xG and FF Jaro 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Turku PS attack 0.985 / defence 0.948 | FF Jaro attack 0.653 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.167. FF Jaro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Turku PS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Turku PS games / 44 FF Jaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Turku PS 67% | Draw 20% | FF Jaro 13%. Fair-value odds: Turku PS 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | FF Jaro 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Turku PS (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Turku PS as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Turku PS 30% | FF Jaro 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Turku PS vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Turku PS 67% | Draw 20% | FF Jaro 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Turku PS 1.98 / FF Jaro 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Turku PS attack 0.985 / def 0.948 | FF Jaro attack 0.653 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Turku PS (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Turku PS xG
Expected Goals
0.72
FF Jaro xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Turku PS vs FF Jaro kick off?
Turku PS vs FF Jaro kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Turku PS vs FF Jaro?
Turku PS 0 - 1 FF Jaro.
Where is Turku PS vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Turku PS vs FF Jaro part of?
Turku PS vs FF Jaro is a Relegation Group - 26 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Turku PS vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives Turku PS a 67% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Turku PS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Turku PS vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Turku PS and FF Jaro will score (BTTS).
Will Turku PS vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and FF Jaro?
Record (2 meetings): Turku PS 1W | Draws 1 | FF Jaro 0W.
What form are Turku PS and FF Jaro in?
Turku PS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. FF Jaro (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Turku PS's attack rating (0.98) and FF Jaro's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FF Jaro's attack versus Turku PS's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Turku PS Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.92
13%
7.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Turku PS xG
Total xG
2.70
0.72
FF Jaro xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.88
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
2%
57.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Turku PS vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Turku PS and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Turku PS and 0.72 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Turku PS vs FF Jaro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Turku PS have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 10W 8D 9L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FF Jaro's form line: 5W 8D 14L from 27 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Turku PS are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FF Jaro.
Venue Form
On home soil, Turku PS have posted 1.93 PPG from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Turku PS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FF Jaro have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FF Jaro's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Turku PS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Turku PS are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FF Jaro are on 0.93 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Turku PS
Blended
FF Jaro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Turku PS and FF Jaro in coming into this match?
Turku PS have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while FF Jaro have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Turku PS at home or FF Jaro away?
Turku PS's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Turku PS at home: 1.93 PPG; FF Jaro away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Turku PS or FF Jaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FF Jaro in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Turku PS's record when hosting FF Jaro specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Turku PS
1
Draws
1
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and FF Jaro?
From 3 meetings on record, Turku PS have won 1, FF Jaro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Turku PS and FF Jaro last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Turku PS 0-1 FF Jaro.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Turku PS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FF Jaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Turku PS 36%, FF Jaro 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Turku PS) and 50% (FF Jaro).
On the defensive side: Turku PS keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; FF Jaro in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Turku PS home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Turku PS play FF Jaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Turku PS's recent matches and 36% of FF Jaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Turku PS vs FF Jaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Turku PS's recent games and 50% of FF Jaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Turku PS and FF Jaro tend to score early?
Turku PS have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FF Jaro in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat Turku PS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FF Jaro beat Turku PS 0-1 at Veritas Stadion, Relegation Group - 26, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Turku PS 1.98 xG and FF Jaro 0.72 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Turku PS fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Turku PS attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against FF Jaro attack 0.65 / defence 1.47, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Turku PS 67% | Draw 20% | FF Jaro 13%, with Turku PS to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a FF Jaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Turku PS 48%, FF Jaro 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Turku PS's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FF Jaro's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with FF Jaro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Turku PS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. FF Jaro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.