SJK 0-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SJK host VPS at OmaSP Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VPS — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SJK, 1 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus VPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | VPS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.24 xG and VPS 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.096 / defence 1.119 | VPS attack 1.031 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 32% | Draw 26% | VPS 42%. Fair-value odds: SJK 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | VPS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SJK 70% | VPS 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 32% | Draw 26% | VPS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG SJK 1.24 / VPS 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.096 / def 1.119 | VPS attack 1.031 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: VPS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
VPS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs VPS kick off?
SJK vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs VPS?
SJK 0 - 2 VPS.
Where is SJK vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs VPS part of?
SJK vs VPS is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 32% chance of winning, VPS a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SJK and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
Record (2 meetings): SJK 1W | Draws 0 | VPS 1W.
What form are SJK and VPS in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SJK's attack rating (1.10) and VPS's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.83
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
SJK xG
Total xG
2.72
1.48
VPS xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SJK and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for SJK and 1.48 for VPS, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 22W 11D 21L from 54 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 20L across 54 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.43 PPG, VPS on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 14W 5D 8L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 16W 3D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.70 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and VPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while VPS have gone 26W 8D 20L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.74 PPG; VPS away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 67%, VPS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SJK) and 56% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 44% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SJK's matches and 56% of VPS's.
Do SJK and VPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VPS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 0-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.24 xG and VPS 1.48 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SJK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against VPS attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 32% | Draw 26% | VPS 42%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, VPS 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.43 PPG, VPS 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.