SJK 1-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SJK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SJK against 1.60 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SJK 1W, Mariehamn 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 3–0 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 44% versus Mariehamn 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 52% | Mariehamn 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.55 xG and Mariehamn 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.995 / defence 1.007 | Mariehamn attack 0.686 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.333. Data: 30 SJK games / 29 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 4.76. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SJK 60% | Mariehamn 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG SJK 1.55 / Mariehamn 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.995 / def 1.007 | Mariehamn attack 0.686 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: SJK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Mariehamn xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 1 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 50% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.99x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.69x) against SJK's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.49
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SJK xG
Total xG
2.47
0.92
Mariehamn xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SJK and 0.92 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, SJK have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 14W 6D 7L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 9W 3D 15L from 27 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.92 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.08 PPG.
Have SJK or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SJK have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SJK
0
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 8, Mariehamn have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SJK 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 62%, Mariehamn 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 46% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SJK's recent matches and 38% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of SJK's recent games and 46% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Mariehamn tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Mariehamn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.55 xG and Mariehamn 0.92 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mariehamn landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Mariehamn attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 52%, Mariehamn 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.