SJK 3-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 0.92 xG and Mariehamn 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.776 / defence 1.010 | Mariehamn attack 0.717 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 1.325. SJK's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 SJK games / 8 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 33% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Mariehamn 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 33% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG SJK 0.92 / Mariehamn 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.776 / def 1.010 | Mariehamn attack 0.717 / def 1.352 | league avg home 0.874 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mariehamn xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 3 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 33% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.72x) against SJK's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.12
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
SJK xG
Total xG
1.88
0.96
Mariehamn xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for SJK and 0.96 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SJK have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SJK
0
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 8, Mariehamn have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SJK 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 3-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 0.92 xG and Mariehamn 0.96 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Mariehamn attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 33% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.