SJK 2-2 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SJK at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Inter Turku encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Inter Turku travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's home record at OmaSP Stadion: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter Turku stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Inter Turku have posted 4W 0D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SJK are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter Turku in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 26% versus Inter Turku 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 32% | Inter Turku 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.69 xG and Inter Turku 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.406 / defence 1.076 | Inter Turku attack 0.934 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.151. SJK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter Turku bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 SJK games / 19 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 24% | Inter Turku 26%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Inter Turku 3.85. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SJK 44% | Inter Turku 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 24% | Inter Turku 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG SJK 1.69 / Inter Turku 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.406 / def 1.076 | Inter Turku attack 0.934 / def 1.280 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: SJK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Inter Turku xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Inter Turku kick off?
SJK vs Inter Turku kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
SJK 2 - 2 Inter Turku.
Where is SJK vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Inter Turku part of?
SJK vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 50% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SJK and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in?
SJK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.41x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.15
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
SJK xG
Total xG
2.85
1.16
Inter Turku xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SJK and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for SJK and 1.16 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 3D 6L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter Turku sit at 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.74 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SJK's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter Turku have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.53 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 10W 2D 7L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Inter Turku away?
SJK's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.89 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SJK or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Inter Turku have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 44%, Inter Turku 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SJK) and 56% (Inter Turku).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Inter Turku in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Inter Turku?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SJK's recent matches and 56% of Inter Turku's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SJK's recent games and 56% of Inter Turku's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Inter Turku tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Inter Turku share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and Inter Turku finished level at 2-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.69 xG and Inter Turku 1.16 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.41 / defence 1.08 against Inter Turku attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 50% | Draw 24% | Inter Turku 26%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 32%, Inter Turku 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter Turku's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.74 PPG, Inter Turku 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.