Mariehamn 0-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Lahti fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Mariehamn welcome Lahti to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 1D 6L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season.
Lahti — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Lahti have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.30 (Lahti). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Lahti trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 33% versus Lahti 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | Lahti 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.41 xG and Lahti 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.973 / defence 1.043 | Lahti attack 1.013 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.033. Data: 22 Mariehamn games / 22 Lahti games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 44% | Draw 27% | Lahti 29%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Lahti 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 30% | Lahti 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 44% | Draw 27% | Lahti 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Mariehamn 1.41 / Lahti 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.973 / def 1.043 | Lahti attack 1.013 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lahti xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Lahti kick off?
Mariehamn vs Lahti kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn 0 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Mariehamn vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Lahti part of?
Mariehamn vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 44% chance of winning, Lahti a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Lahti (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.76
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.50
1.09
Lahti xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.09 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 3D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (10W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.11 PPG, Lahti on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mariehamn's home form reads 4W 1D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Lahti have gone 10W 10D 7L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Lahti away?
Lahti's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.00 PPG; Lahti away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, Lahti have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 31%, Lahti 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 38% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Lahti?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 62% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 38% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Lahti tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Lahti in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mariehamn's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Lahti finished level at 0-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.41 xG and Lahti 1.09 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lahti landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Lahti attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 44% | Draw 27% | Lahti 29%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, Lahti 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lahti's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.11 PPG, Lahti 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.