Mariehamn 3-0 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gnistan at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mariehamn face Gnistan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gnistan travel to Wiklöf Holding Arena to take on Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mariehamn's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Gnistan — last 1 games: 0W 1D 0L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.00 (Gnistan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Mariehamn have won 0, Gnistan 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2023, ended Mariehamn 0–0 Gnistan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.12 xG and Gnistan 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.732 / defence 1.076 | Gnistan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.280. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 44 games and Gnistan's last 0.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 34% | Draw 29% | Gnistan 37%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.93 | Draw 3.44 | Gnistan 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gnistan are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gnistan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 1 games) averaging 0.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 34% | Draw 29% | Gnistan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Mariehamn 1.12 / Gnistan 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.732 / def 1.076 | Gnistan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Gnistan xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs Gnistan kick off?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn 3 - 0 Gnistan.
Where is Mariehamn vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Gnistan part of?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 34% chance of winning, Gnistan a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mariehamn and Gnistan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Mariehamn vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.73x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 44 games and Gnistan's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.44
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.29
1.17
Gnistan xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.17 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.00 PPG, Gnistan on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gnistan in 0%.
Defensively: Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Gnistan in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
Mariehamn (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Mariehamn or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Gnistan in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 11 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gnistan have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 3-0 Gnistan.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
2
Draws
6
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 1, Gnistan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 July 2026: Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and Gnistan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mariehamn's recent games and 0% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Gnistan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mariehamn run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gnistan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Gnistan 3-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.12 xG and Gnistan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gnistan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.73 / defence 1.08 against Gnistan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 34% | Draw 29% | Gnistan 37%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 0%, Gnistan 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.00 PPG, Gnistan 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gnistan shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.