KuPS 1-1 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Honka make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Honka (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Honka have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for KuPS against 2.00 for Honka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KuPS lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Honka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
KuPS — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Honka — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 49% versus Honka 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | Honka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.81 xG and Honka 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.386 / defence 0.695 | Honka attack 0.931 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.376. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KuPS's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 KuPS games / 38 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 23% | Honka 18%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Honka 5.56. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 60% | Honka 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 23% | Honka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG KuPS 1.81 / Honka 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.386 / def 0.695 | Honka attack 0.931 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: KuPS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Honka xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Honka kick off?
KuPS vs Honka kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Honka?
KuPS 1 - 1 Honka.
Where is KuPS vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Honka part of?
KuPS vs Honka is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 59% chance of winning, Honka a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KuPS and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Honka?
Record (3 meetings): KuPS 2W | Draws 0 | Honka 1W.
What form are KuPS and Honka in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Honka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KuPS's attack rating (1.39) and Honka's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Honka's attack (0.93x) against KuPS's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.40
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.70
0.89
Honka xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
33.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for KuPS and 0.89 for Honka, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Honka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, KuPS have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 28W 10D 5L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Honka's form line: 19W 9D 15L from 43 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Honka.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.38 PPG from 21 outings (15W 5D 1L).
On the road, Honka have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.63 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Honka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 28W 10D 5L in their last 43 games (2.19 PPG), while Honka have gone 19W 9D 15L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Honka away?
KuPS's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.38 PPG; Honka away: 1.33 PPG.
Have KuPS or Honka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Honka in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: KuPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
2
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Honka?
From 8 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Honka have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when KuPS 3-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Honka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Honka see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 48%, Honka 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (KuPS) and 48% (Honka).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Honka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of KuPS's recent matches and 57% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of KuPS's recent games and 48% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Honka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Honka in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS and Honka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS and Honka finished level at 1-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.81 xG and Honka 0.89 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KuPS fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.39 / defence 0.69 against Honka attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 59% | Draw 23% | Honka 18%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, Honka 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Honka's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.