KuPS 2-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga (Championship Round - 3). Kick-off is Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
KuPS — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KuPS at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haka stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haka have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
KuPS are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, KuPS have won 2, Haka 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended KuPS 2–2 Haka — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 49% versus Haka 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | Haka 59%). Note also that Haka surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while KuPS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.77 xG and Haka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.126 / defence 0.804 | Haka attack 1.040 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Data: built from KuPS's last 44 games and Haka's last 44.
Result probabilities: KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.86 | Draw 4.07 | Haka 4.63. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and Haka's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 60% (last 10 home games) | Haka 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG KuPS 1.77 / Haka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.126 / def 0.804 | Haka attack 1.040 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: KuPS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs Haka FAQs
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 2 - 0 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 54% chance of winning, Haka a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 44 games and Haka's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.07
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.81
1.04
Haka xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
27.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs Haka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for KuPS and 1.04 for Haka, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, KuPS have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 30W 10D 11L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Haka's form line: 17W 16D 18L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 25 home games (18W 1D 6L).
On the road, Haka have gone 8W 2D 15L from their last 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.41 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 63%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs Haka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ KuPS vs Haka Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 30W 10D 11L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while Haka have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.20 PPG; Haka away: 1.04 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Haka in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
KuPS have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Haka.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs Haka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 44%, Haka 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for KuPS and 68% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haka in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs Haka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and Haka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of KuPS's recent matches and 52% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and Haka matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of KuPS's matches and 68% of Haka's.
Do KuPS and Haka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of KuPS's recent matches and 92% of Haka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 2-0 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.77 xG and Haka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Haka attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, Haka 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haka's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.