Kooteepee 2-4 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kooteepee and Haka meet at Arto Tolsa Areena in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kooteepee's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kooteepee at Arto Tolsa Areena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haka have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Haka arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kooteepee lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 60% versus Haka 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 60% | Haka 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.85 xG and Haka 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.729 / defence 1.534 | Haka attack 0.761 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Kooteepee games / 22 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 25% | Draw 29% | Haka 46%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Haka 2.17. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 60% | Haka 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 25% | Draw 29% | Haka 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Kooteepee 0.85 / Haka 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.729 / def 1.534 | Haka attack 0.761 / def 1.207 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Haka (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Haka xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Haka kick off?
Kooteepee vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Kooteepee 2 - 4 Haka.
Where is Kooteepee vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Haka part of?
Kooteepee vs Haka is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 25% chance of winning, Haka a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kooteepee and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
Record (2 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 1 | Haka 0W.
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.73x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.76x) against Kooteepee's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
25%
4.00
29%
3.44
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.11
1.26
Haka xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.26 for Haka, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kooteepee come into this having played 25 games, going 2W 5D 18L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kooteepee's home form reads 1W 2D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kooteepee are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 0.96 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Haka in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 18L in their last 25 games (0.44 PPG), while Haka have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.42 PPG; Haka away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Haka in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kooteepee have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Kooteepee
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 58%, Haka 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kooteepee) and 42% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 42%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 33% of games; Haka in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 25% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kooteepee's recent games and 42% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Haka tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haka in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Kooteepee 2-4 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.85 xG and Haka 1.26 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.73 / defence 1.53 against Haka attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 25% | Draw 29% | Haka 46%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 60%, Haka 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.