Ilves 1-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Lahti fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Lahti travel to Ratinan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 2W 1D 7L at Ratinan Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Lahti have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Lahti have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ilves 0.90 PPG, Lahti 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ilves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lahti in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ilves have won 1, Lahti 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 52% versus Lahti 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 52% | Lahti 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.66 xG and Lahti 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.901 / defence 1.194 | Lahti attack 0.907 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Lahti bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 Lahti games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 25% | Lahti 36%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Lahti 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 60% | Lahti 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 25% | Lahti 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Ilves 1.66 / Lahti 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.901 / def 1.194 | Lahti attack 0.907 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Lahti xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Lahti kick off?
Ilves vs Lahti kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Lahti?
Ilves 1 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Ilves vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Lahti part of?
Ilves vs Lahti is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, Lahti a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ilves and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Lahti?
Record (2 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 1 | Lahti 0W.
What form are Ilves and Lahti in?
Ilves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Lahti (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ilves's attack at 0.90x the league average against Lahti's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.02
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.23
1.57
Lahti xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Ilves and 1.57 for Lahti, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 10D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (14W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.23 PPG, Lahti on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ilves's home form reads 12W 2D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 1.06 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Lahti in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 18W 10D 24L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Lahti have gone 14W 16D 22L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Lahti away?
Ilves's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.46 PPG; Lahti away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Lahti won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
4
Draws
2
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Lahti have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Ilves 1-0 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Lahti?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 46%, Lahti 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ilves) and 58% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ilves have failed to score in 27% of games; Lahti in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Lahti?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ilves's recent matches and 58% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ilves's recent games and 58% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Lahti tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lahti in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Lahti 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Lahti 1-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.66 xG and Lahti 1.57 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lahti landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Lahti attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 25% | Lahti 36%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 52%, Lahti 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lahti's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.23 PPG, Lahti 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.