Ilves 2-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Haka travel to Ratinan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Ratinan Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Haka's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ilves's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ilves, 1 for Haka and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 48% versus Haka 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 50% | Haka 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.53 xG and Haka 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.842 / defence 1.219 | Haka attack 0.972 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.463. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Ilves games / 41 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 34% | Draw 23% | Haka 43%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Haka 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | Haka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 34% | Draw 23% | Haka 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Ilves 1.53 / Haka 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.842 / def 1.219 | Haka attack 0.972 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Haka (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Haka xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Haka kick off?
Ilves vs Haka kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Haka?
Ilves 2 - 3 Haka.
Where is Ilves vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Haka part of?
Ilves vs Haka is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 34% chance of winning, Haka a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ilves and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 0 | Haka 1W.
What form are Ilves and Haka in?
Ilves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Haka (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (0.84) and Haka's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
34%
2.94
23%
4.30
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.26
1.73
Haka xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ilves and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ilves and 1.73 for Haka, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 8D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.37 PPG from 46 outings (18W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.28 PPG, Haka on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 12W 1D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.30 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Haka in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 8D 21L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Haka have gone 18W 9D 19L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Haka away?
Ilves's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.68 PPG; Haka away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 36%, Haka 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ilves) and 54% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haka in 32%; Ilves have failed to score in 32% of games; Haka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ilves's recent matches and 41% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ilves's recent games and 54% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Haka tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Haka in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out Ilves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Ilves 2-3 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.53 xG and Haka 1.73 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Haka attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 34% | Draw 23% | Haka 43%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 50%, Haka 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.28 PPG, Haka 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.