Honka 0-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tapiolan Urheilupuisto to face Honka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 3 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 1.28 xG and Mariehamn 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | Mariehamn attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 0.654. Data: 1 Honka games / 0 Mariehamn games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Honka 52% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 19%. Fair-value odds: Honka 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 5.26. Honka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Mariehamn's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Honka if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 52% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Honka 1.28 / Mariehamn 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | Mariehamn attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.152 / away 0.654 • Poisson stance: Honka (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Honka xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Mariehamn xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Honka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Honka 0 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Honka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs Mariehamn part of?
Honka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 52% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Honka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Honka and Mariehamn in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Honka's attack rating (0.97) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.85x) against Honka's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 1/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.41
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Honka xG
Total xG
1.92
0.64
Mariehamn xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
28%
3.64
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Honka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Honka and 0.64 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Honka have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Honka
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
From 7 meetings on record, Honka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Honka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Mariehamn 0-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and Mariehamn?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Honka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Honka 0-2 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 1.28 xG and Mariehamn 0.64 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Honka fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mariehamn outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Mariehamn attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 52% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 19%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.