Haka 2-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 2.00 PPG versus Ilves's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ilves in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 33% versus Ilves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Haka 37% | Ilves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.26 xG and Ilves 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.999 / defence 0.993 | Ilves attack 0.972 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 0.937. Data: 22 Haka games / 22 Ilves games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haka 45% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Ilves 3.70. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 20% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 45% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Haka 1.26 / Ilves 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.999 / def 0.993 | Ilves attack 0.972 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.241 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Haka (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ilves xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 2 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 45% chance of winning, Ilves a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Ilves in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Haka xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Ilves xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Haka and 0.91 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 5D 12L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (11W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.30 PPG, Ilves on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while Ilves have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.14 PPG; Ilves away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Haka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 36%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Haka) and 43% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Haka keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haka have failed to score in 36% of games; Ilves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Haka's recent matches and 50% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Haka's recent games and 43% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out Ilves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Ilves 2-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.26 xG and Ilves 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Ilves attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 45% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 37%, Ilves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.30 PPG, Ilves 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.