Haka 4-3 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host AC Oulu at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 24 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haka stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Haka have posted 3W 7D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AC Oulu's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Haka have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Haka's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Haka, 2 for AC Oulu and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Haka 1–1 AC Oulu — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
AC Oulu in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 62% and AC Oulu 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | AC Oulu 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haka surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while AC Oulu have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that AC Oulu surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Haka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.85 xG and AC Oulu 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.018 / defence 0.914 | AC Oulu attack 1.148 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.182. Data: built from Haka's last 29 games and AC Oulu's last 29.
Result probabilities: Haka 49% | Draw 28% | AC Oulu 23%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.04 | Draw 3.59 | AC Oulu 4.34. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Haka's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 70% (last 10 home games) | AC Oulu 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 8 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 49% | Draw 28% | AC Oulu 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Haka 1.85 / AC Oulu 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.018 / def 0.914 | AC Oulu attack 1.148 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Haka (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.24
AC Oulu xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs AC Oulu FAQs
What time does Haka vs AC Oulu kick off?
Haka vs AC Oulu kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Haka 4 - 3 AC Oulu.
Where is Haka vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs AC Oulu part of?
Haka vs AC Oulu is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 8) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 49% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Haka and AC Oulu will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haka's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 29 games and AC Oulu's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.59
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Haka xG
Total xG
3.09
1.24
AC Oulu xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
4%
27.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs AC Oulu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Haka and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Haka and 1.24 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Haka have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 17D 18L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
AC Oulu's form line: 24W 11D 21L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.43 PPG, AC Oulu on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 12D 4L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 11W 4D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.57 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; AC Oulu in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
AC Oulu
Current Season
Haka (Home) vs AC Oulu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
AC Oulu
Current Season
❓ Haka vs AC Oulu Form FAQs
What form are Haka and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or AC Oulu away?
Haka's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.67 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 19 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Oulu have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won AC Oulu 3-0 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs AC Oulu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and AC Oulu?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and AC Oulu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2025: Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haka at 74%, AC Oulu at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Haka and 74% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs AC Oulu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and AC Oulu matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haka's games and 70% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and AC Oulu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Haka's matches and 74% of AC Oulu's.
Do Haka and AC Oulu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Haka's recent matches and 89% of AC Oulu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out AC Oulu 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat AC Oulu 4-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.85 xG and AC Oulu 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AC Oulu outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against AC Oulu attack 1.15 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 49% | Draw 28% | AC Oulu 23%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, AC Oulu 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.43 PPG, AC Oulu 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.