Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gnistan (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gnistan face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Gnistan welcome Mariehamn to Markku.fi Areena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gnistan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Markku.fi Areena, Gnistan have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Gnistan have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Gnistan hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Mariehamn, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2026, ended 3–0 with Gnistan winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gnistan and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 61% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 58% | Mariehamn 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 2.22 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 1.144 / defence 1.071 | Mariehamn attack 0.643 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.159. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Gnistan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Gnistan games / 36 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 68% | Draw 21% | Mariehamn 11%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Mariehamn 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Gnistan (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gnistan are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 60% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Markku.fi Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 68% | Draw 21% | Mariehamn 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 50% | xG Gnistan 2.22 / Mariehamn 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 1.144 / def 1.071 | Mariehamn attack 0.643 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Mariehamn xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Mariehamn kick off?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Markku.fi Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan 4 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Gnistan vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Markku.fi Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Mariehamn part of?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 68% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gnistan and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Record (8 meetings): Gnistan 5W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in?
Gnistan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 1.14x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
68%
1.46
21%
4.82
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Gnistan xG
Total xG
3.02
0.80
Mariehamn xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
85.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Gnistan and 0.80 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 11W 13D 17L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 21L across 41 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 1.12 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 6D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gnistan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.98 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 8W 12D 21L in their last 41 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Mariehamn away?
Gnistan's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.25 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gnistan and Mariehamn runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gnistan have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Gnistan
2
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 55%, Mariehamn 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gnistan) and 50% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Gnistan's games and 55% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gnistan vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gnistan's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
Do Gnistan and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gnistan cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Mariehamn 4-2 at Markku.fi Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 2.22 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Mariehamn attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 68% | Draw 21% | Mariehamn 11%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 58%, Mariehamn 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.12 PPG, Mariehamn 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.