Gnistan 0-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KuPS travel to Mustapekka Areena to take on Gnistan in Veikkausliiga (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 2 matches, Gnistan stand at 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Across their last 10 games, KuPS have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
KuPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Gnistan's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 0.76 xG and KuPS 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.615 / defence 1.298 | KuPS attack 1.015 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.237. Gnistan's attack rating of 0.615 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. KuPS bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gnistan's projected output down. Gnistan's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KuPS's projected output up. Data: built from Gnistan's last 6 games and KuPS's last 28.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 15% | Draw 30% | KuPS 55%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 6.85 | Draw 3.32 | KuPS 1.81. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (55%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gnistan's last 2 games and KuPS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 7 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 15% | Draw 30% | KuPS 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Gnistan 0.76 / KuPS 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.615 / def 1.298 | KuPS attack 1.015 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: KuPS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.63
KuPS xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs KuPS kick off?
Gnistan vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs KuPS?
Gnistan 0 - 0 KuPS.
Where is Gnistan vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs KuPS part of?
Gnistan vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 7) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 15% chance of winning, KuPS a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gnistan and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Gnistan vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gnistan's attack rating (0.61) and KuPS's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 6 games and KuPS's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
15%
6.85
30%
3.32
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.39
1.63
KuPS xG
6.85
15%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
34.96
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.63 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gnistan's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Gnistan are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; KuPS in 100%.
Defensively: Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Early Season
KuPS
Early Season
Gnistan (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Early Season
KuPS
Early Season
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and KuPS in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while KuPS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Gnistan or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, KuPS in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jul 2025, when KuPS won KuPS 6-2 Gnistan.
Gnistan's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gnistan
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: KuPS 1-1 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gnistan's recent matches and 100% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gnistan's matches and 100% of KuPS's.
Do Gnistan and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Gnistan's recent matches and 100% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gnistan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan and KuPS finished level at 0-0 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 0.76 xG and KuPS 1.63 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.61 / defence 1.30 against KuPS attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 15% | Draw 30% | KuPS 55%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 50%, KuPS 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gnistan conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.