AC Oulu 1-0 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 55%, yet in-form Turku PS provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs Turku PS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Oulu host Turku PS at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Oulu — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Turku PS stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Veikkausliiga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Turku PS have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Turku PS are 1.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.67 xG and Turku PS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.115 / defence 0.814 | Turku PS attack 0.979 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.043. Turku PS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 AC Oulu games / 6 Turku PS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 55% | Draw 28% | Turku PS 17%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Turku PS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AC Oulu (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Turku PS (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 55% | Draw 28% | Turku PS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG AC Oulu 1.67 / Turku PS 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.115 / def 0.814 | Turku PS attack 0.979 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Turku PS xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Turku PS kick off?
AC Oulu vs Turku PS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Turku PS?
AC Oulu 1 - 0 Turku PS.
Where is AC Oulu vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Turku PS part of?
AC Oulu vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 55% chance of winning, Turku PS a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AC Oulu and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Turku PS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Turku PS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Turku PS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AC Oulu's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Turku PS's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.53
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.50
0.83
Turku PS xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
32.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.83 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Turku PS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AC Oulu, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Turku PS, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Turku PS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Turku PS by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Turku PS's attacking output running into AC Oulu's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Turku PS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Turku PS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have AC Oulu or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Turku PS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AC Oulu
0
Draws
1
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Turku PS?
From 2 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 1, Turku PS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Turku PS last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Turku PS 3-0 AC Oulu.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Turku PS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 50% of Turku PS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Turku PS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of AC Oulu's recent games and 100% of Turku PS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Turku PS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Turku PS 1-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.67 xG and Turku PS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Turku PS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Turku PS attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 55% | Draw 28% | Turku PS 17%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 0%, Turku PS 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Turku PS managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.