AC Oulu 0-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and SJK meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.87 xG and SJK 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.804 / defence 1.199 | SJK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.941 / away 1.601. Data: 2 AC Oulu games / 2 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 17% | Draw 32% | SJK 52%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 5.88 | Draw 3.12 | SJK 1.92. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 17% | Draw 32% | SJK 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG AC Oulu 0.87 / SJK 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.804 / def 1.199 | SJK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.941 / away 1.601 • Poisson stance: SJK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.63
SJK xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs SJK kick off?
AC Oulu vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 SJK.
Where is AC Oulu vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs SJK part of?
AC Oulu vs SJK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 17% chance of winning, SJK a 52% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AC Oulu and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Oulu's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.85x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
17%
6.04
32%
3.17
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.50
1.63
SJK xG
6.04
17%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
3%
30.85
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.63 for SJK, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
SJK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AC Oulu
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SJK 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.87 xG and SJK 1.63 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against SJK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 17% | Draw 32% | SJK 52%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.