West Ham 3-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to London Stadium to face West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — West Ham are significantly better at London Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fulham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Fulham are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 56% versus Fulham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 50% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.50 xG and Fulham 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.854 / defence 0.948 | Fulham attack 0.921 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.229. Data: 46 West Ham games / 8 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 29% | Fulham 26%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 3.85. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 60% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 29% | Fulham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG West Ham 1.50 / Fulham 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.854 / def 0.948 | Fulham attack 0.921 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: West Ham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fulham xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Fulham kick off?
West Ham vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Fulham?
West Ham 3 - 1 Fulham.
Where is West Ham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Fulham part of?
West Ham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 46% chance of winning, Fulham a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both West Ham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Fulham in?
West Ham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.85) and Fulham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.92x) against West Ham's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.50
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.57
1.07
Fulham xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are West Ham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for West Ham and 1.07 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 9D 19L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 25W 10D 11L from 46 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.20 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Fulham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 18W 9D 19L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Fulham have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.57 PPG; Fulham away: 1.70 PPG.
Have West Ham or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fulham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 5-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
West Ham
1
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 4, Fulham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Fulham 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Fulham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 70%, Fulham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (West Ham) and 48% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of West Ham's games and 52% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of West Ham's recent games and 48% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Fulham 3-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.50 xG and Fulham 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 46% | Draw 29% | Fulham 26%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 50%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.