West Ham 2-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 31 as West Ham welcome Everton to London Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Ham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Ham at London Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — West Ham are significantly better at London Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
West Ham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. West Ham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Everton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for West Ham, 0 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with West Ham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 59% versus Everton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 52% | Everton 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 2.07 xG and Everton 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.109 / defence 1.099 | Everton attack 0.568 / defence 1.724. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.339. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.724 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 West Ham games / 27 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 14%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Everton 7.14. The model has a clear lean to West Ham (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: West Ham 70% | Everton 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG West Ham 2.07 / Everton 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.109 / def 1.099 | Everton attack 0.568 / def 1.724 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: West Ham (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Everton xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Everton kick off?
West Ham vs Everton kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Everton?
West Ham 2 - 1 Everton.
Where is West Ham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Everton part of?
West Ham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 66% chance of winning, Everton a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both West Ham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Everton?
Record (1 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Everton 0W.
What form are West Ham and Everton in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.11x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.01
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.90
0.84
Everton xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
55.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are West Ham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for West Ham and 0.84 for Everton, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Ham come into this having played 27 games, going 12W 5D 10L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Ham's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.46 points per game from 13 outings (1W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Ham are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.07 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Everton in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while Everton have gone 7W 4D 16L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Everton away?
West Ham's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.77 PPG; Everton away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Ham and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Ham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Ham
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 5, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Everton?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 69%, Everton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (West Ham) and 62% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of West Ham's games and 54% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of West Ham's matches and 62% of Everton's.
Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Everton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Everton 2-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.07 xG and Everton 0.84 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Everton attack 0.57 / defence 1.72, drawn from 30/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 14%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 52%, Everton 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Ham arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.