West Ham 1-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Brighton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Ham host Brighton at London Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham at London Stadium this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brighton — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brighton have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — West Ham at 1.60 PPG versus Brighton's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Brighton in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 69% versus Brighton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 69% | Brighton 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.36 xG and Brighton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.142 / defence 1.116 | Brighton attack 0.714 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.304. Data: 13 West Ham games / 13 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 44% | Draw 28% | Brighton 28%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Brighton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: West Ham 83% | Brighton 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 44% | Draw 28% | Brighton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG West Ham 1.36 / Brighton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.142 / def 1.116 | Brighton attack 0.714 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: West Ham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Brighton xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Brighton kick off?
West Ham vs Brighton kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Brighton?
West Ham 1 - 1 Brighton.
Where is West Ham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Brighton part of?
West Ham vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 44% chance of winning, Brighton a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both West Ham and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brighton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Brighton in?
West Ham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Brighton (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.14x the league average against Brighton's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.60
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.40
1.04
Brighton xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are West Ham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for West Ham and 1.04 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 2D 4L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brighton sit at 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.77 PPG, Brighton on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
West Ham's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Brighton have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Brighton in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Brighton in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Brighton have gone 4W 6D 3L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Brighton away?
West Ham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.67 PPG; Brighton away: 1.50 PPG.
Have West Ham or Brighton been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Brighton in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Brighton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
5
Draws
4
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brighton?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 1, Brighton have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when West Ham 2-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — West Ham at 83%, Brighton at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (West Ham) and 33% (Brighton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brighton in 33%; Brighton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of West Ham's games and 50% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of West Ham's matches and 33% of Brighton's.
West Ham and Brighton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Brighton finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.36 xG and Brighton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Brighton attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 44% | Draw 28% | Brighton 28%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 69%, Brighton 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Brighton's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.77 PPG, Brighton 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.