Tottenham 1-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tottenham at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
West Ham travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham in Premier League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 December 2023 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Tottenham — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Tottenham have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, West Ham have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, West Ham have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Tottenham are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Tottenham, 1 for West Ham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended Tottenham 2–0 West Ham — a Tottenham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
West Ham in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 65% versus West Ham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | West Ham 48%). Note also that West Ham surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Tottenham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.76 xG and West Ham 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.941 / defence 1.089 | West Ham attack 1.075 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.390. Data: built from Tottenham's last 52 games and West Ham's last 52.
Result probabilities: Tottenham 42% | Draw 23% | West Ham 36%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.41 | Draw 4.42 | West Ham 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 70% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 42% | Draw 23% | West Ham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Tottenham 1.76 / West Ham 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.941 / def 1.089 | West Ham attack 1.075 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.63
West Ham xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tottenham vs West Ham FAQs
What time does Tottenham vs West Ham kick off?
Tottenham vs West Ham kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs West Ham?
Tottenham 1 - 2 West Ham.
Where is Tottenham vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs West Ham part of?
Tottenham vs West Ham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 42% chance of winning, West Ham a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Tottenham and West Ham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tottenham vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tottenham's last 52 games and West Ham's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
42%
2.41
23%
4.42
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.39
1.63
West Ham xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tottenham vs West Ham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Tottenham and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.63 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 9D 17L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (17W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Tottenham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 16W 1D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 25 away games (6W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.27 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
West Ham
Blended
Tottenham (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tottenham
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Tottenham vs West Ham Form FAQs
What form are Tottenham and West Ham in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 26W 9D 17L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while West Ham have gone 17W 10D 25L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or West Ham away?
Tottenham's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.96 PPG; West Ham away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won Tottenham 4-1 West Ham.
Tottenham's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Tottenham
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Tottenham vs West Ham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and West Ham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tottenham have won 4, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and West Ham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and West Ham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 60%, West Ham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Tottenham) and 56% (West Ham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; West Ham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tottenham vs West Ham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tottenham and West Ham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tottenham's games and 56% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tottenham and West Ham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tottenham's matches and 56% of West Ham's.
Do Tottenham and West Ham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Tottenham's recent matches and 68% of West Ham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.76 xG and West Ham 1.63 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against West Ham attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 42% | Draw 23% | West Ham 36%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, West Ham 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 15
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →