Tottenham 5-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tottenham and Everton meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Tottenham (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tottenham have posted 5W 1D 4L at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Tottenham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tottenham, 0 for Everton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Tottenham — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Everton — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 38% versus Everton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 58% | Everton 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.73 xG and Everton 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.028 / defence 1.230 | Everton attack 0.612 / defence 1.545. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.351. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.545 — this is suppressing Tottenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Tottenham games / 24 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 54% | Draw 24% | Everton 22%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Everton 4.55. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tottenham 40% | Everton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 54% | Draw 24% | Everton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Tottenham 1.73 / Everton 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.028 / def 1.230 | Everton attack 0.612 / def 1.545 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Everton xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Everton kick off?
Tottenham vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham 5 - 0 Everton.
Where is Tottenham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Everton part of?
Tottenham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 54% chance of winning, Everton a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tottenham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Everton?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 0W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Tottenham and Everton in?
Tottenham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Everton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.61x) against Tottenham's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.21
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.75
1.02
Everton xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
25.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.02 for Everton, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tottenham come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 3D 9L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tottenham's home form reads 6W 1D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.45 points per game from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tottenham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.17 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Everton in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Everton have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Everton away?
Tottenham's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.73 PPG; Everton away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Tottenham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tottenham have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tottenham
3
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 6, Everton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Tottenham 1-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Everton?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 36%, Everton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Tottenham and 54% for Everton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tottenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Everton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Tottenham's recent matches and 54% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Tottenham's matches and 54% of Everton's.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Everton 5-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.73 xG and Everton 1.02 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against Everton attack 0.61 / defence 1.54, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 54% | Draw 24% | Everton 22%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 58%, Everton 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.