Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Liverpool at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nottingham Forest face Liverpool.

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Analysis & Preview

Liverpool travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Nottingham Forest's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Liverpool — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Liverpool have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 2.40 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Liverpool 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Nottingham Forest 1–0 Liverpool — a Nottingham Forest win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Liverpool trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Liverpool 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Liverpool 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nottingham Forest surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.37 xG and Liverpool 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.917 / defence 0.721 | Liverpool attack 1.613 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.512. Liverpool have an above-average attack rating of 1.613, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Nottingham Forest have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling Liverpool's projected output down. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 58 games and Liverpool's last 57.

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 45%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.59 | Draw 3.62 | Liverpool 2.24. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 50% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 60% (last 10 away games).

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