Nottingham Forest vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Everton at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Everton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Everton make the trip to City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Nottingham Forest (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Everton have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Nottingham Forest, 1.10 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 8 meetings, Everton have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Nottingham Forest's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.

It is worth noting that Everton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Everton — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 47% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Everton 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 0.82 xG and Everton 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.580 / defence 0.877 | Everton attack 0.942 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.580 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Nottingham Forest games / 45 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 33% | Everton 40%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Everton 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Everton 70%.

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