Nottingham Forest 1-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Crystal Palace travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nottingham Forest at 1.60 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crystal Palace in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Crystal Palace 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 64% and Crystal Palace 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 49% | Crystal Palace 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.18 xG and Crystal Palace 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.765 / defence 0.951 | Crystal Palace attack 0.876 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.445. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Nottingham Forest games / 45 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Crystal Palace 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 60% | Crystal Palace 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.18 / Crystal Palace 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.765 / def 0.951 | Crystal Palace attack 0.876 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Crystal Palace xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 34% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
Record (4 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 3 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.77x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.14
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.38
1.20
Crystal Palace xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.20 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 13D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crystal Palace sit at 1.16 PPG from 45 outings (13W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.02 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Crystal Palace have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.38 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Crystal Palace in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Crystal Palace
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Crystal Palace away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.00 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
6
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nottingham Forest at 68%, Crystal Palace at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nottingham Forest) and 50% (Crystal Palace).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Nottingham Forest's games and 68% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.18 xG and Crystal Palace 1.20 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against Crystal Palace attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 49%, Crystal Palace 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.02 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.