Newcastle 3-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Newcastle — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Newcastle are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Newcastle register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Everton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Everton trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 65% and Everton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 45% | Everton 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.34 xG and Everton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.835 / defence 1.446 | Everton attack 0.675 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.313. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Newcastle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Newcastle games / 20 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 38% | Draw 27% | Everton 35%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 70% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 38% | Draw 27% | Everton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Newcastle 1.34 / Everton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.835 / def 1.446 | Everton attack 0.675 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Everton xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle 3 - 1 Everton.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 38% chance of winning, Everton a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Newcastle and Everton in?
Newcastle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Everton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.69
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.63
1.28
Everton xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.28 for Everton, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Newcastle have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 9D 9L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 0.75 PPG, Everton on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L).
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.20 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Everton in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 2W 9D 9L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Everton have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 0.90 PPG; Everton away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
2
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Everton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Newcastle at 70%, Everton at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Newcastle) and 60% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Newcastle's games and 60% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Newcastle's matches and 60% of Everton's.
Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Everton 3-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.34 xG and Everton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against Everton attack 0.68 / defence 1.38, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 38% | Draw 27% | Everton 35%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 45%, Everton 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 0.75 PPG, Everton 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.