Newcastle 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to St. James' Park to face Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Newcastle (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle at St. James' Park this season: 0W 4D 3L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burnley have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Newcastle, 0.90 for Burnley — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 77% and Burnley 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 46% | Burnley 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.37 xG and Burnley 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.000 / defence 1.679 | Burnley attack 0.720 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.315. Data: 14 Newcastle games / 13 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 32% | Draw 26% | Burnley 42%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Burnley 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 86% | Burnley 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 32% | Draw 26% | Burnley 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Newcastle 1.37 / Burnley 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.000 / def 1.679 | Burnley attack 0.720 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Burnley (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Burnley xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Burnley kick off?
Newcastle vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Burnley?
Newcastle 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Newcastle vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Burnley part of?
Newcastle vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 32% chance of winning, Burnley a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Newcastle and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Newcastle and Burnley in?
Newcastle (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.00) and Burnley's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.72x) against Newcastle's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.86
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.96
1.59
Burnley xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
15.27
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.59 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newcastle come into this having played 13 games, going 0W 7D 6L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (1W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.54 PPG for Newcastle against 0.77 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Newcastle's home form reads 0W 4D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Burnley in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Burnley in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 0W 7D 6L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 7D 5L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Burnley away?
Newcastle's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 0.67 PPG; Burnley away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Newcastle have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Newcastle
0
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 6, Burnley have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Burnley?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Newcastle, 67% for Burnley — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Newcastle) and 50% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Newcastle's games and 67% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Newcastle's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 1-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.37 xG and Burnley 1.59 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burnley landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.00 / defence 1.68 against Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 32% | Draw 26% | Burnley 42%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 46%, Burnley 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 0.54 PPG, Burnley 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.