Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Liverpool take on Newcastle.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and Newcastle meet at Anfield in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool at Anfield this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newcastle (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Liverpool are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Liverpool winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Liverpool and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 61% versus Newcastle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | Newcastle 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.15 xG and Newcastle 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 0.890 / defence 0.889 | Newcastle attack 0.862 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.261. Data: 61 Liverpool games / 61 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 36% | Draw 37% | Newcastle 27%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Newcastle 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 50% | Newcastle 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 36% | Draw 37% | Newcastle 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Liverpool 1.15 / Newcastle 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 0.890 / def 0.889 | Newcastle attack 0.862 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Newcastle xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Newcastle kick off?
Liverpool vs Newcastle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Liverpool 4 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Liverpool vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Newcastle part of?
Liverpool vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 36% chance of winning, Newcastle a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Liverpool and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Newcastle?
Record (8 meetings): Liverpool 7W | Draws 1 | Newcastle 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Newcastle in?
Liverpool (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Liverpool's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Newcastle's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.86x) against Liverpool's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.77
37%
2.70
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.12
0.97
Newcastle xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.97 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 35W 15D 11L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle's form line: 29W 12D 20L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Liverpool against 1.62 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.23 PPG from 30 outings (20W 7D 3L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liverpool are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.64 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 35W 15D 11L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 29W 12D 20L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Newcastle away?
Liverpool's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.23 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Newcastle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 4-1 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Liverpool
2
Draws
0
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 8, Newcastle have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Newcastle?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Newcastle see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 60%, Newcastle 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Liverpool) and 53% (Newcastle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Newcastle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Liverpool's games and 53% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liverpool vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Liverpool's matches and 53% of Newcastle's.
Do Liverpool and Newcastle tend to score early?
Liverpool have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Newcastle 4-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.15 xG and Newcastle 0.97 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Newcastle attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 36% | Draw 37% | Newcastle 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Newcastle 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.97 PPG, Newcastle 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.