Liverpool 3-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Liverpool at 79% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Leicester encounter.

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Full Analysis

Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Leicester in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Liverpool's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Liverpool have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Leicester (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Leicester's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Liverpool's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Leicester's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Liverpool edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Liverpool 3–0 Leicester — a Liverpool win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 63% and Leicester 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 65% | Leicester 65%). Note also that Leicester surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 83% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.88 xG and Leicester 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.175 / defence 0.699 | Leicester attack 0.743 / defence 1.608. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.474. Leicester's defence rating of 1.608 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Liverpool's projected output up. Leicester's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Liverpool have a tight defence (rating 0.699), which is pulling Leicester's projected output down. Data: built from Liverpool's last 54 games and Leicester's last 17.

Result probabilities: Liverpool 79% | Draw 15% | Leicester 6%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.26 | Draw 6.87 | Leicester 16.61. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (79%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Liverpool 40% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 60% (last 10 away games).

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