Liverpool 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 7W 2D 1L at Anfield — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Liverpool's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Liverpool 0W, Fulham 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 48% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.03 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.392 / defence 1.016 | Fulham attack 0.919 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.296. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Liverpool games / 33 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 21% | Fulham 22%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Fulham 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 60% | Fulham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 21% | Fulham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Liverpool 2.03 / Fulham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.392 / def 1.016 | Fulham attack 0.919 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fulham xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 56% chance of winning, Fulham a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Liverpool 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.39x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.92x) against Liverpool's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.68
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Liverpool xG
Total xG
3.24
1.21
Fulham xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
3%
33.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.21 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Liverpool have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 44W 16D 11L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 35W 14D 22L from 71 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.46 PPG from 35 outings (26W 8D 1L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 16W 7D 12L from 35 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.87 scored and 1.14 conceded. Fulham's attacking output running into Liverpool's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 44W 16D 11L in their last 71 games (2.08 PPG), while Fulham have gone 35W 14D 22L in their last 71 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.46 PPG; Fulham away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fulham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 46%, Fulham 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 51% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Fulham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Liverpool's recent matches and 51% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Liverpool's matches and 51% of Fulham's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 1-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.03 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Liverpool fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 56% | Draw 21% | Fulham 22%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.