Liverpool 4-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 9W 1D 0L at Anfield — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Anfield. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Liverpool are significantly better at Anfield than their overall form suggests.
Fulham have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Liverpool's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Liverpool 1W, Fulham 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Liverpool winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 57% versus Fulham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.25 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.377 / defence 0.625 | Fulham attack 0.806 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.382. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.625 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Liverpool games / 51 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Fulham 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 40% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 45% | xG Liverpool 2.25 / Fulham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.377 / def 0.625 | Fulham attack 0.806 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Fulham xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 4 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 73% chance of winning, Fulham a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Liverpool 1W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.38x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.81x) against Liverpool's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
73%
1.38
17%
5.76
10%
10.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.94
0.70
Fulham xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
10.02
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
11%
9.46
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
94.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.70 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 14D 10L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 19W 10D 22L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.48 PPG from 25 outings (19W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Liverpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fulham have gone 8W 4D 13L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 games (1.86 PPG), while Fulham have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.48 PPG; Fulham away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 48%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 56% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Liverpool's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Liverpool's matches and 56% of Fulham's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Fulham 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 4-3 at Anfield, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.25 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.38 / defence 0.62 against Fulham attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.