Liverpool 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Liverpool (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Liverpool face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and Burnley meet at Anfield in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Liverpool (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool at Anfield this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Liverpool. A 1.40 PPG lead over Burnley (1.70 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Liverpool, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Burnley — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Liverpool winning.
The historical record gives Liverpool a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Liverpool — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Burnley — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 59% versus Burnley 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Burnley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.85 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 0.910 / defence 0.889 | Burnley attack 0.861 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.240. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Liverpool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Liverpool games / 21 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 27% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Burnley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 50% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 27% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Liverpool 1.85 / Burnley 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 0.910 / def 0.889 | Burnley attack 0.861 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Burnley xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Burnley kick off?
Liverpool vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Burnley?
Liverpool 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Liverpool vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Burnley part of?
Liverpool vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 56% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Liverpool and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Burnley?
Record (5 meetings): Liverpool 5W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Burnley in?
Liverpool (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Liverpool's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.86x) against Liverpool's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.66
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.80
0.95
Burnley xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
38.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.95 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Liverpool come into this having played 59 games, going 35W 14D 10L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.63 PPG from 59 outings (26W 18D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for Liverpool against 1.63 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Liverpool's home form reads 20W 6D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.31 scored and 0.90 conceded. Liverpool's scoring rate against Burnley's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Burnley in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Burnley in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 35W 14D 10L in their last 59 games (2.02 PPG), while Burnley have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Burnley away?
Liverpool's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.28 PPG; Burnley away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burnley in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Liverpool
1
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 5, Burnley have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Burnley?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 59%, Burnley 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 48% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 45%; Burnley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Liverpool's recent matches and 45% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Liverpool's recent games and 48% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liverpool and Burnley tend to score early?
Liverpool have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burnley in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.85 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liverpool fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 56% | Draw 27% | Burnley 17%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 2.02 PPG, Burnley 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.