Leeds 0-4 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tottenham at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leeds and Tottenham meet at Elland Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Leeds's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 3.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Elland Road this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leeds are significantly better at Elland Road than their overall form suggests.
Tottenham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Tottenham are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Leeds 0W, Tottenham 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Leeds — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Tottenham — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 62% versus Tottenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 62% | Tottenham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.23 xG and Tottenham 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.935 / defence 1.454 | Tottenham attack 0.842 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.325. Data: 25 Leeds games / 24 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 29% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 46%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Tottenham 2.17. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 70% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 29% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Leeds 1.23 / Tottenham 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.935 / def 1.454 | Tottenham attack 0.842 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Tottenham xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Tottenham kick off?
Leeds vs Tottenham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Tottenham?
Leeds 0 - 4 Tottenham.
Where is Leeds vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Tottenham part of?
Leeds vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 29% chance of winning, Tottenham a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Leeds and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Tottenham?
Record (1 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Leeds and Tottenham in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Tottenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Leeds's attack rating (0.94) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (0.84x) against Leeds's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
29%
3.44
24%
4.08
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.86
1.62
Tottenham xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.42
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Leeds and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Leeds and 1.62 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Leeds have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 5W 8D 11L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham's form line: 12W 3D 9L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leeds.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leeds have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leeds are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.29 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.08 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Leeds or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Tottenham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won 0-4 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Leeds
1
Draws
5
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Tottenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 0, Tottenham have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Tottenham 1-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 67%, Tottenham 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Leeds) and 42% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Leeds's recent matches and 42% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Leeds's recent games and 42% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Leeds.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Leeds 0-4 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.23 xG and Tottenham 1.62 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Leeds fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Tottenham outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.94 / defence 1.45 against Tottenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 29% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 46%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 62%, Tottenham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tottenham's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.