Ipswich 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ipswich welcome Fulham to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ipswich) versus 1.10 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ipswich register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fulham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 62% versus Fulham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 62% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.693 / defence 1.168 | Fulham attack 0.883 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.441. Ipswich's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Ipswich games / 40 Fulham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 25% | Draw 29% | Fulham 46%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 2.17. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 25% | Draw 29% | Fulham 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ipswich 1.04 / Fulham 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.693 / def 1.168 | Fulham attack 0.883 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Fulham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Fulham xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Fulham kick off?
Ipswich vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Fulham?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Ipswich vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Fulham part of?
Ipswich vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 25% chance of winning, Fulham a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ipswich and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
25%
3.96
29%
3.51
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.52
1.49
Fulham xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.49 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 12D 7L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (14W 8D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ipswich's home form reads 13W 6D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.42 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 21W 12D 7L in their last 40 games (1.88 PPG), while Fulham have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Fulham away?
Ipswich's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.25 PPG; Fulham away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Fulham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 5 January 2025, when Fulham 2-2 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 70%, Fulham 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Ipswich and 60% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ipswich's games and 55% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Ipswich's matches and 60% of Fulham's.
Ipswich and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 3, as Ipswich and Fulham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.69 / defence 1.17 against Fulham attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 25% | Draw 29% | Fulham 46%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 62%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.