Ipswich 0-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ipswich host Crystal Palace at Portman Road in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ipswich — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ipswich have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Crystal Palace's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 0.80 PPG, Crystal Palace 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ipswich's games and 70% of Crystal Palace's (from Ipswich's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Ipswich in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 65% and Crystal Palace 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 57% | Crystal Palace 51%). Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Ipswich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.08 xG and Crystal Palace 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.674 / defence 1.155 | Crystal Palace attack 0.934 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.416. Ipswich's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Ipswich's last 13 games and Crystal Palace's last 51.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 25% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 45%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 4.07 | Draw 3.31 | Crystal Palace 2.21. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crystal Palace at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 60% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 25% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ipswich 1.08 / Crystal Palace 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.674 / def 1.155 | Crystal Palace attack 0.934 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Crystal Palace xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Ipswich vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Ipswich 0 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Ipswich vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Crystal Palace part of?
Ipswich vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 25% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ipswich and Crystal Palace will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ipswich vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 0.67x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 13 games and Crystal Palace's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
25%
4.07
30%
3.31
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.61
1.53
Crystal Palace xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.53 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 22W 18D 11L from 51 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 21L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 13W 10D 2L from their last 25 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 5W 9D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
Ipswich (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Ipswich vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 22W 18D 11L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Crystal Palace away?
Ipswich's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.96 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ipswich
0
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Crystal Palace?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ipswich at 72%, Crystal Palace at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ipswich) and 52% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Crystal Palace matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Ipswich's games and 68% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ipswich and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ipswich's matches and 52% of Crystal Palace's.
Do Ipswich and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Ipswich's recent matches and 64% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Ipswich 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Ipswich 0-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.08 xG and Crystal Palace 1.53 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ipswich fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Crystal Palace attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 25% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 45%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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