Fulham 1-4 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Wolves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Wolves at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 4W 2D 4L at Craven Cottage — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Wolves have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fulham have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fulham, 1 for Wolves and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Wolves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wolves in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 53% and Wolves 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Wolves 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.96 xG and Wolves 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.992 / defence 1.062 | Wolves attack 1.038 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.345. Wolves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Fulham games / 49 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 47% | Draw 25% | Wolves 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Wolves 3.57. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Wolves 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 47% | Draw 25% | Wolves 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Fulham 1.96 / Wolves 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.992 / def 1.062 | Wolves attack 1.038 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Fulham (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Wolves xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Wolves kick off?
Fulham vs Wolves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Fulham 1 - 4 Wolves.
Where is Fulham vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Wolves part of?
Fulham vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 47% chance of winning, Wolves a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fulham and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
Record (4 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 2 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Fulham and Wolves in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wolves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fulham vs Wolves?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fulham's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.06
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.44
1.48
Wolves xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
4%
25.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fulham and 1.48 for Wolves, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 11D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.06 PPG from 49 outings (14W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.33 PPG, Wolves on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fulham's home form reads 12W 3D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolves in 69%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Wolves in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Wolves have gone 14W 10D 25L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Wolves away?
Fulham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Wolves away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
3
Draws
2
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Wolves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Wolves?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 50%, Wolves 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fulham and 62% for Wolves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games; Wolves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Wolves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fulham's games and 67% of Wolves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 62% of Wolves's.
Dominant Wolves run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Fulham 1-4 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.96 xG and Wolves 1.48 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Wolves outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Wolves attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 47% | Draw 25% | Wolves 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Wolves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Wolves 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wolves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.33 PPG, Wolves 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.