Fulham 1-1 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Manchester United (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fulham face Manchester United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Fulham welcome Manchester United to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Manchester United have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Manchester United away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Manchester United's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Fulham's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Manchester United have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Fulham.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Manchester United winning.
It is worth noting that Manchester United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 52% and Manchester United 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Manchester United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.60 xG and Manchester United 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.054 / defence 1.273 | Manchester United attack 1.041 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.275. Data: 42 Fulham games / 42 Manchester United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 36% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 40%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Manchester United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Manchester United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Manchester United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 36% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Fulham 1.60 / Manchester United 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.054 / def 1.273 | Manchester United attack 1.041 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Manchester United xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Manchester United kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester United kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Fulham 1 - 1 Manchester United.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester United part of?
Fulham vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 36% chance of winning, Manchester United a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fulham and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
Record (8 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 1 | Manchester United 6W.
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Manchester United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.05x the league average against Manchester United's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester United's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.14
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.29
1.69
Manchester United xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fulham and 1.69 for Manchester United, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 8D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Manchester United sit at 1.79 PPG from 42 outings (21W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Manchester United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Manchester United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fulham's home form reads 11W 2D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Manchester United have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.81 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester United in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Manchester United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester United away?
Fulham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.67 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Manchester United runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham's record when hosting Manchester United specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Fulham
2
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
From 9 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Fulham 1-1 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Manchester United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, Manchester United 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fulham and 67% for Manchester United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Manchester United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fulham's games and 71% of Manchester United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fulham's matches and 67% of Manchester United's.
Do Fulham and Manchester United tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Manchester United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Manchester United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 5, as Fulham and Manchester United drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.60 xG and Manchester United 1.69 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 1.27 against Manchester United attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 36% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 40%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 50%, Manchester United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Manchester United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.