Fulham vs Hull City – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 47%, yet in-form Hull City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Hull City meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Hull City's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Hull City have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hull City arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fulham, 0 for Hull City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Fulham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hull City — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Hull City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.55 xG and Hull City 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.017 / defence 1.120 | Hull City attack 0.826 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.211. Data: 40 Fulham games / 2 Hull City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 47% | Draw 25% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Hull City 3.70. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Hull City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 47% | Draw 25% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Fulham 1.55 / Hull City 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.017 / def 1.120 | Hull City attack 0.826 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Fulham (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Hull City kick off?
Fulham vs Hull City is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Hull City part of?
Fulham vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 47% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fulham and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Fulham and Hull City in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.83x) against Fulham's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.96
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.67
1.12
Hull City xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fulham and 1.12 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 7D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.70 PPG from 40 outings (20W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Fulham against 1.70 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 11W 2D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.80 points per game from 20 outings (11W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.42 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hull City in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.75 PPG; Hull City away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Fulham or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hull City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Hull City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Hull City 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Hull City?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Hull City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fulham) and 60% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fulham's games and 55% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fulham's matches and 60% of Hull City's.
Do Fulham and Hull City tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hull City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.