Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.10 PPG, Bournemouth 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fulham have won 0, Bournemouth 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bournemouth trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Bournemouth 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Bournemouth 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.48 xG and Bournemouth 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.992 / defence 1.441 | Bournemouth attack 0.839 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.208. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Fulham games / 9 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 59% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 20%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Bournemouth 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Bournemouth 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 59% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Fulham 2.48 / Bournemouth 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.992 / def 1.441 | Bournemouth attack 0.839 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Fulham (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Bournemouth xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 59% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Record (2 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 2 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.99) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.80
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.94
1.46
Bournemouth xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
8%
11.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
2%
58.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Fulham and 1.46 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 30W 11D 14L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 28W 16D 11L from 55 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.84 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (16W 5D 6L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 13W 7D 7L from 27 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.49 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 30W 11D 14L in their last 55 games (1.84 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 28W 16D 11L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.96 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Fulham or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Bournemouth 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 44% (Bournemouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bournemouth in 48%; Bournemouth in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fulham's recent matches and 37% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 44% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Bournemouth finished level at 2-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.48 xG and Bournemouth 1.46 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.44 against Bournemouth attack 0.84 / defence 1.46, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 59% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 20%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Bournemouth 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.84 PPG, Bournemouth 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.