Everton vs Sunderland – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 51%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sunderland — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Everton have won 0, Sunderland 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Sunderland 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.72 xG and Sunderland 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.027 / defence 0.957 | Sunderland attack 0.995 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Everton games / 40 Sunderland games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton 51% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Sunderland 3.85. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 51% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton 1.72 / Sunderland 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.027 / def 0.957 | Sunderland attack 0.995 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Everton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sunderland xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Sunderland kick off?
Everton vs Sunderland is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Sunderland part of?
Everton vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 51% chance of winning, Sunderland a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Everton and Sunderland in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.20
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Everton xG
Total xG
2.87
1.15
Sunderland xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
5%
21.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Everton and 1.15 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.32 PPG, Sunderland on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Sunderland away?
Everton's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Everton or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Sunderland runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Everton
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton have won 0, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Everton 1-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton) and 45% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sunderland in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Everton's recent games and 45% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Sunderland tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.