Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Crystal Palace at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.80 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Everton hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Crystal Palace, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Everton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Everton and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Crystal Palace trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Crystal Palace 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Crystal Palace 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.02 xG and Crystal Palace 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.902 / defence 0.781 | Crystal Palace attack 1.117 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.203. Crystal Palace's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Everton's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Everton games / 44 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Crystal Palace 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 60% | Crystal Palace 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton 1.02 / Crystal Palace 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.902 / def 0.781 | Crystal Palace attack 1.117 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Crystal Palace xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 2 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Everton vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Record (7 meetings): Everton 5W | Draws 2 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in?
Everton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.90x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
34%
2.99
32%
3.16
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Everton xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Crystal Palace xG
2.99
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Everton and 1.05 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Everton have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 13W 17D 14L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crystal Palace's form line: 16W 17D 11L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.27 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (6W 11D 5L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 9W 8D 5L from 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.34 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Crystal Palace
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 17D 14L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 16W 17D 11L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Crystal Palace's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.32 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Everton or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Everton
3
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 7, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 46% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 41%; Everton have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Everton's recent games and 46% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.02 xG and Crystal Palace 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.90 / defence 0.78 against Crystal Palace attack 1.12 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 35%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.27 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.