Everton 1-0 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brentford (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Brentford.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brentford (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brentford are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Everton, 2 for Brentford and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 47% versus Brentford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 47% | Brentford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.99 xG and Brentford 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.738 / defence 1.137 | Brentford attack 0.979 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.061. Everton's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Everton games / 62 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Brentford 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brentford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Brentford 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Everton 0.99 / Brentford 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.738 / def 1.137 | Brentford attack 0.979 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Brentford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Brentford xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off?
Everton vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Brentford?
Everton 1 - 0 Brentford.
Where is Everton vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Brentford part of?
Everton vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 31% chance of winning, Brentford a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Everton and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
Record (3 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Everton and Brentford in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Brentford (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.74) and Brentford's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.98x) against Everton's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 64/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.43
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Everton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.18
Brentford xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Everton and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Everton and 1.18 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 15W 12D 35L from 62 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 22L across 62 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brentford by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 11W 4D 15L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Brentford in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 12D 35L in their last 62 games (0.92 PPG), while Brentford have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Brentford away?
Everton's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.23 PPG; Brentford away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
4
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 40%, Brentford 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Everton) and 63% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games; Brentford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Everton's recent matches and 63% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Everton's recent games and 63% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Brentford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Brentford 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.99 xG and Brentford 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brentford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Brentford attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 64/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 31% | Draw 29% | Brentford 40%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 47%, Brentford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Brentford's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brentford arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.