Everton 2-3 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brentford (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Brentford's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brentford are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Everton, 1 for Brentford and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Brentford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Brentford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 51% | Brentford 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.33 xG and Brentford 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.814 / defence 0.856 | Brentford attack 0.851 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.327. Brentford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Everton games / 36 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Brentford 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Brentford 3.70. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brentford (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Brentford 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Brentford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Everton 1.33 / Brentford 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.814 / def 0.856 | Brentford attack 0.851 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Everton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brentford xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off?
Everton vs Brentford kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Brentford?
Everton 2 - 3 Brentford.
Where is Everton vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Brentford part of?
Everton vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 45% chance of winning, Brentford a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Everton and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Brentford 1W.
What form are Everton and Brentford in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Brentford (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.81) and Brentford's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.85x) against Everton's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.57
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Everton xG
Total xG
2.30
0.97
Brentford xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Everton and 0.97 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 10W 6D 19L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 17L across 35 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Everton against 1.14 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 8W 2D 7L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brentford's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.20 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Brentford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Brentford in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Brentford have gone 11W 7D 17L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Brentford away?
Everton's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.53 PPG; Brentford away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
4
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 41%, Brentford 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 71% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games; Brentford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Everton's recent matches and 65% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Everton's matches and 71% of Brentford's.
Shock result as Brentford defy the odds to beat Everton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Everton 2-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.33 xG and Brentford 0.97 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brentford outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.86 against Brentford attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Brentford 27%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Brentford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 51%, Brentford 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.03 PPG, Brentford 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.