Crystal Palace 0-0 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Liverpool (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crystal Palace face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Selhurst Park plays host to Crystal Palace versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Liverpool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 52% versus Liverpool 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 47% | Liverpool 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.21 xG and Liverpool 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.762 / defence 1.077 | Liverpool attack 1.029 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.147. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Crystal Palace games / 60 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 38%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Liverpool 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 60% | Liverpool 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Crystal Palace 1.21 / Liverpool 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.762 / def 1.077 | Liverpool attack 1.029 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Liverpool xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Liverpool.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool part of?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of winning, Liverpool a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crystal Palace and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
Record (3 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 1 | Liverpool 2W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Liverpool in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.03x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.69
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.48
1.27
Liverpool xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.27 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 17W 23D 20L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool's form line: 38W 13D 9L from 60 games, 2.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crystal Palace.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 16W 6D 8L from 30 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 17W 23D 20L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 38W 13D 9L in their last 60 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.47 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Liverpool in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
5
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Liverpool have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 53%, Liverpool 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Crystal Palace and 70% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Liverpool in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 50% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Crystal Palace's matches and 70% of Liverpool's.
Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace and Liverpool finished level at 0-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.21 xG and Liverpool 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Liverpool landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Liverpool attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 38%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 47%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.