Burnley 2-2 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Tottenham travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Tottenham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Burnley's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Tottenham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tottenham have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Tottenham in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 40% versus Tottenham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 38% | Tottenham 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.10 xG and Tottenham 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.733 / defence 1.272 | Tottenham attack 1.090 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.202. Burnley's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Burnley games / 60 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 22% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 48%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Tottenham 2.08. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Tottenham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 22% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.10 / Tottenham 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.733 / def 1.272 | Tottenham attack 1.090 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Tottenham xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Tottenham kick off?
Burnley vs Tottenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Burnley 2 - 2 Tottenham.
Where is Burnley vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Tottenham part of?
Burnley vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 22% chance of winning, Tottenham a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Tottenham?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 4W.
What form are Burnley and Tottenham in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Tottenham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.73) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
22%
4.50
30%
3.32
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.77
1.67
Tottenham xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
23.80
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Burnley and 1.67 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 19D 15L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham's form line: 18W 11D 31L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (13W 11D 6L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 10W 5D 15L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.58 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 19D 15L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 18W 11D 31L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Tottenham away?
Burnley's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.67 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Burnley or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Tottenham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Tottenham won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Tottenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Tottenham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 33%, Tottenham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Burnley) and 60% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 37% of games; Tottenham in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Burnley's recent matches and 47% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Burnley's recent games and 60% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Tottenham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Tottenham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Tottenham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Tottenham finished level at 2-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.10 xG and Tottenham 1.67 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 1.27 against Tottenham attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 22% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 48%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Tottenham 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.